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The False Promise of ChatGPT
Fortunately, there are people like Noam Chomsky who can write texts that start with Jorge Luis Borges and end up with Karl Popper via Sherlock Holmes and Isaac Newton.
Noam Chomsky: The False Promise of ChatGPT
Hat tip goes to Lukas Heinser.
A long and winding road
Roy Amara formulated in the 1960s while he was the president of the Institute for the Future:
„We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.“
The earliest known publication of Amara’s Law was in the book „The Singularity Is Near“ by Ray Kurzweil in 2005. In 2023, this is still true for LegalTech as well as AI.
Kira was founded in 2011, we use it broadly since 2014. And there are myriads of other comparable products that use machine learning/deep learning to analyse documents. It’s a commodity by now. DeepL Translator and Writer, Naix Redaction, Litera ContractCompanion, and many more that I can’t talk about publicly.
ChatGPT schon wieder
Wir neigen dazu, die Wirkung einer Technologie kurzfristig zu überschätzen und auf lange Sicht zu unterschätzen. Sage nicht ich, sondern Roy Amara. Das trifft auf LegalTech zu 100 % zu. Kira wurde 2011 gegründet, es gibt noch viele andere vergleichbare Produkte, die mit Machine Learning/Deep Learning Dokumentenanalyse betreiben. Das ist mittlerweile Commodity. DeepL Translator und Naix Redaction, die mit Natural Language Processing arbeiten. iPhone Dictation, Navigation und Bilderkennung, das passiert seit Jahren auf dem Gerät! Brustkrebserkennung. Es ist Wahnsinn, was wir alles mittlerweile mit AI machen und wie gut das bereits funktioniert. Die Brustkrebserkennung ist so weit, dass die den Krebs erkennen kann, bevor er entsteht. So perfekt sind Kira, DeepL, Naix und Apple noch nicht (looking at you, Siri), aber sie sind gut genug uns das Leben zu vereinfachen, Zeit zu sparen, und konstante Qualität zu liefern.
Generative AI im Allgemeinen und ChatGPT im Besonderen setzen dem Ganzen die Krone auf, weil die Ergebnisse formal und textuell so beindruckend sind. Vorsicht aufgrund von Datenschutz, Geschäfts- und Berufsgeheimnis beim Eingeben der Fragen sowie die notwendige Bewertung der Antworten durch Experten aufgrund von voreingenommenem (biased) oder unzureichendem Training, die zu KI-Halluzinationen führen können, sind die zu lösenden Probleme. Insbesondere für uns, die für Anwälte arbeiten.
Vor genau einem Jahr habe ich einen Vortrag gehalten mit dem Titel „Legal Tech – Euphorie, Enttäuschung und Erleuchtung“. Passt noch immer.
Why is no one talking about APIs?
AI is the future. Especially generative AI, as already discussed. APIs are present. For the non-IT people here: API stands for „Application Programming Interface“). An API is a defined interface through which software programs can communicate and interact with each other.
APIs are so great because they provide a simple and standardised way to share data and functions between different systems. By using an API, businesses can quickly and efficiently access the functionality of other programs without having to code them from scratch. Furthermore, they improve the security and stability of the underlying systems and also facilitate the management of permissions and access control.
Where have all the AI riots gone?
We are just witnessing the public launch of a revolution that will be at least as big as the widespread introduction of the steam engine, electricity, the assembly line, or the Internet. Incredibly few people realise how radical the upheavals caused by artificial intelligence will be. Especially those who should actually know. Including me.
The results of Generative AI are formally and textually impressive, but the meaningfulness and truthfulness are not always. Sometimes ludicrously wrong.
Say Their Names (3)
Three years ago today, less than five kilometers air distance from here, nine fellow citizens with a migrant background were murdered in a racist and right-wing extremist act of terrorism by a German. His name is unimportant.
Their names must not be forgotten: Gökhan Gültekin, Sedat Gürbüz, Said Nesar Hashemi, Mercedes Kierpacz, Hamza Kurtovic, Vili Viorel Paun, Fatih Saraçoglu, Ferhat Unvar and Kaloyan Velkov.
Somewhat Useful
Chat GPT, unlike Blockchain, Watson or Metaverse, is somehow already somewhat useful generally. If you know your way around the domain of question and answer. The answers are always impressive, perfectly formulated (in English, French and German at least) and sometimes quite clever.
Experience is an Asset (2)
My wonderful wife Carmen, the mother of our fantastic children, has worked at Mayer Brown for 25 years. She started at Gaedertz Rechtsanwälte, in between it was called Mayer Brown Rowe and Maw Gaedertz (not kidding!!) and since 2008 simply Mayer Brown. At this point, however, I would like to remind you once again that experience is an asset.
25 Years (not the song)
25 years Mayer Brown – my half live I am working there. It’s unbelievable!
Thank you Wolfgang Leip. I worked with and learned from you the first years. Dr. Johann C Gaedertz LL.M. who bring me back after maternally leave, also Daniel R. Marschollek, where I learned about counterfeit procedures and last but not least our IP practice leader Ulrich Worm for more than 13 years.
Thanks for more than 13 years to my wonderful colleague Christiane Reutlinger and also Konstantin von Werder for working close with you in trademark matters. Furthermore I am proud to work with Gail Hatcher and William Siegel from our office in Chicago.
Thanks Jon Van Gorp for his warm words from Chicago. I was really surprised.
Thank you and all other colleagues which I forgot to mention.